What is DOV's forecasted revenue?

Dover Corporation is forecasted to generate $8.51B in FY revenue, representing +5.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the DOV revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.1B versus the actual $2.1B.

Dover Corporation DOV

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by efficient SG&A spending, as the model suggests every dollar of SG&A generates about 4.05 dollars of long-run revenue, signaling a strong return on selling, general and administrative investments. The model’s holdout test predicted revenue at 2.1B against actual 2.1B with just 2.3% error, and overall MAPE is 5.3% over 70 quarters, indicating reliable forecasting. The latest quarterly revenue is about 2.099B, with a full-year forecast of 8.5B, representing roughly 5.2% year-over-year growth. Outlook: continued SG&A-driven revenue strength appears to be the key lever, and with no R&D data available, the sustainability of growth hinges on maintaining SG&A ROI amid the ongoing demand environment.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.3% MAPE), suggesting Dover Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.05 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$8.51B

+5.2% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$4.05 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.1B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 2.3%.

Note: Dover Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.1B	$2.1B	$1.8B – $2.3B	+6.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.1B		$1.7B – $2.4B	+10.6%
Q3 2026	$2.1B		$1.7B – $2.5B	+3.3%
Q4 2026	$2.2B		$1.7B – $2.6B	+3.7%
Q1 2027	$2.2B		$1.6B – $2.7B	+3.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dover Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0226	+2.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9961	-0.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9953	-0.5%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0192	+1.9%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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