Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Expedia Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $17B, a +14.2% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.73 per $1). The ARDL model has 7.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.0% MAPE), suggesting Expedia Group, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.73 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$16.8B
+14.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.73 per $1
Model Accuracy
7.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.0B vs the actual $3.5B — an error of 13.2%.
Note:
Expedia Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.0B | $3.5B | $3.6B – $4.4B | +26.1% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | $3.3B – $4.3B | +27.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.1B | $3.5B – $4.8B | +9.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.5B | $3.7B – $5.2B | +1.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.4B | $3.6B – $5.2B | +24.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Expedia Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0247 | +2.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9696 | -3.0% | -3.0% below trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9704 | -3.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0121 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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