Fastenal Co FAST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Fastenal Co's revenue growth is primarily driven by strategic investments in selling, general, and administrative expenses, with a demonstrated elasticity of 1.29%, indicating a strong return on investment for every 1% increase in SG&A. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $2,028 million, the company's holdout test revealed a slight forecasting error of 4.2%, suggesting room for improvement in predictive accuracy. With a fiscal year forecast projecting $9 billion in revenue, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year increase, the outlook remains positive as the company continues to leverage its operational efficiencies for sustained growth. Investors can expect that continued focus on effective spending will further enhance revenue performance in the coming periods.

Next FY Revenue
$9.12B
+11.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.29x
Model Accuracy
1.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2B vs the actual $2B — an error of 4.2%.
Note: Fastenal Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

FAST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2B $2B $2B – $2B +15.8% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $2B $2B – $2B +11.5%
Q3 2026 $2B $2B – $2B +8.8%
Q4 2026 $2B $2B – $3B +8.4%
Q1 2027 $2B $2B – $3B +16.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

FAST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch