What is FAST's forecasted revenue?

Fastenal Co is forecasted to generate $9.12B in FY revenue, representing +11.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FAST revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 1.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.1B versus the actual $2.0B.

Fastenal Co FAST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth is predominantly driven by SG&A investments, with an elasticity of 1.28% in revenue per 1% SG&A increase, indicating selling and marketing spend can generate outsized top-line gains. The model shows strong predictive accuracy (MAPE 1.8%), with a holdout forecast of 2.1B versus actual 2.0B (–4.2% error), supporting the reliability of these drivers. The outlook remains constructive, with a full-year revenue forecast of 9.1B, up 11.2% year over year. Given the >1x ROI implied by the SG&A elasticity, incremental selling and marketing spend could yield attractive returns, though margins and operating efficiency will be critical to sustaining profitability.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Fastenal Co's revenue with exceptional precision (1.8% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.28x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$9.12B

+11.2% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.28x

Model Accuracy

1.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.1B vs the actual $2.0B — an error of 4.2%.

Note: Fastenal Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.1B	$2.0B	$2.0B – $2.2B	+15.8%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.2B		$2.0B – $2.3B	+11.5%
Q3 2026	$2.3B		$2.1B – $2.5B	+8.8%
Q4 2026	$2.3B		$2.1B – $2.5B	+8.4%
Q1 2027	$2.4B		$2.1B – $2.6B	+16.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Fastenal Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0062	+0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9769	-2.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.011	+1.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9986	-0.1%	In line with trend	17

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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