Comfort Systems Usa, Inc. FIX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Comfort Systems Usa, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +30.6% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.19x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.8% MAPE), suggesting Comfort Systems Usa, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.19x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$11.9B
+30.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.19x
Model Accuracy
3.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.4B vs the actual $2.6B — an error of 7.9%.
Note:
Comfort Systems Usa, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.2B – $2.7B | +30.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | $2.2B – $2.9B | +38.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | $2.5B – $3.3B | +32.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.2B | $2.7B – $3.8B | +29.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.3B | $2.7B – $4.0B | +24.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Comfort Systems Usa, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9848 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9842 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9926 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0358 | +3.6% | +3.6% above trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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