Lennox International Inc. LII
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Lennox International Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.5B, a +5.6% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($4.62 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.4% MAPE), suggesting Lennox International Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.62 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$5.48B
+5.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.62 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 12.8%.
Note:
Lennox International Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +0.2% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.3B | +6.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.7B | -0.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $1.2B – $1.7B | +3.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.7B | +14.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Lennox International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9797 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.999 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9758 | -2.4% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0289 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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