Lam Research Corporation LRCX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth is driven by positive, relatively high elasticities to R&D and SG&A investments, with 1% more R&D boosting revenue by 1.70% and 1% more SG&A boosting revenue by 1.54%, making R&D the more potent driver of topline growth. The log-log model achieves a 6.6% MAPE and held out with a predicted $5.3B versus actual $5.3B, translating to about 1.6% error, indicating credible near-term forecasting performance. With a quarterly revenue of about $5.35B, the FY revenue forecast is $24B, representing a 20.8% year-over-year increase, underpinned by the ongoing revenue responsiveness to spend in R&D and SG&A. The ROI implication is that R&D investment drives stronger revenue uplift than SG&A, supporting a constructive growth outlook while margin outcomes will hinge on the efficiency of SG&A spending and the cost structure as demand evolves.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.6% MAPE), suggesting Lam Research Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 1.70x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 1.70% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.54x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$23.9B
+20.8% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.70x
SG&A Elasticity
1.54x
Model Accuracy
6.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.3B vs the actual $5.3B — an error of 1.6%.

Revenue Forecast

LRCX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $5.3B $5.3B $4.5B – $6.2B +26.1% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $5.5B $4.4B – $7.0B +26.8%
Q2 2026 $5.8B $4.4B – $7.7B +23.9%
Q3 2026 $6.1B $4.4B – $8.4B +15.0%
Q4 2026 $6.4B $4.4B – $9.1B +19.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lam Research Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0351 +3.5% +3.5% above trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0017 +0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9803 -2.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 0

How Spending Drives Revenue

LRCX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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