Monolithic Power Systems Inc MPWR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 7 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Monolithic Power Systems Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $197M, a -2.7% year-over-year change, based on 7 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Monolithic Power Systems Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$197.1M
-2.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.94x
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $58M vs the actual $50M — an error of 14.9%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Monolithic Power Systems Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2012 | $58M | $50M | $54M – $62M | +30.5% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q3 2012 | $43M | $39M – $47M | -16.3% | ||
| Q4 2012 | $57M | $51M – $63M | +6.9% | ||
| Q1 2013 | $42M | $37M – $48M | -11.6% | ||
| Q2 2013 | $55M | $48M – $64M | +9.5% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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