Nike, Inc. NKE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Nike, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $46B, a -3.9% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.76x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Nike, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.6% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.76x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$45.9B
-3.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.76x
Model Accuracy
2.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $12B vs the actual $12B — an error of 2.5%.
Note:
Nike, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $12B | $12B | $11B – $13B | +4.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $11B | $10B – $12B | -7.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $11B | $10B – $13B | +1.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $10B – $13B | +0.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $11B | $9.8B – $13B | -9.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Nike, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9938 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0042 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0108 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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