What is NTAP's forecasted revenue?

Netapp, Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.53B in FY revenue, representing -1.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NTAP revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.7B versus the actual $1.7B.

Netapp, Inc. NTAP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 51 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by demand for data storage and management solutions, with ROI from spending indicating $1 of R&D yields $2.89 of long-run revenue and $1 of SG&A yields $2.18. The latest quarterly revenue was $1.713 billion, supported by 51 quarters of data and a linear model with 3.1% MAPE. Holdout testing shows the model predicted $1.7B versus actual $1.7B, a 2.1% error, indicating solid forecast reliability. The FY revenue forecast is $6.5B, down 1.4% year over year, signaling a modest near-term outlook despite strong ROI on R&D and SG&A investments.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.1% MAPE), suggesting Netapp, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $2.89 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.18 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.53B

-1.4% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$2.89 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.18 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.7B vs the actual $1.7B — an error of 2.1%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 2026	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.6B – $1.8B	+1.2%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.6B		$1.5B – $1.8B	-0.7%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.5B – $1.9B	+6.1%
Q4 2026	$1.6B		$1.4B – $1.9B	-4.2%
Q1 2027	$1.6B		$1.3B – $1.9B	-6.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Netapp, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0014	+0.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0238	+2.4%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0096	+1.0%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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