What is POOL's forecasted revenue?

Pool Corporation is forecasted to generate $5.79B in FY revenue, representing +9.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the POOL revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.9% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $1.0B.

Pool Corporation POOL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue was about $982 million, and revenue growth appears driven by high operating leverage in SG&A, with $1 of SG&A spending generating $8.24 of long-run revenue, signaling a strong ROI from selling and administrative activity. The forecasting approach is a linear model with 5.9% MAPE; holdout tests yielded a 1.2B forecast vs 1.0B actual, a -23% error, indicating some risk to near-term accuracy. The full-year outlook calls for about $5.8B in revenue, up 9.4% year over year, pointing to solid growth momentum. Investors should monitor SG&A efficiency as the primary lever for revenue growth, while recognizing model and forecast risk that could temper quarterly results.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.9% MAPE), suggesting Pool Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $8.24 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$5.79B

+9.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$8.24 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 23.0%.

Note: Pool Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.0B) came in 23% below the spending-based forecast ($1.2B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.2B	$1.0B	$1.1B – $1.3B	+22.3%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$1.3B		$1.2B – $1.5B	+22.8%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.5B – $1.9B	-6.3%
Q4 2026	$1.5B		$1.3B – $1.7B	+3.0%
Q1 2027	$1.3B		$1.0B – $1.6B	+32.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pool Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.003	+0.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0109	+1.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9946	-0.5%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0267	+2.7%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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