Walmart Inc. WMT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Walmart Inc. (WMT) has a forecasted full-year revenue of $784B, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data.
Investment Thesis
At 684.8% MAPE, the model captures Walmart Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.78 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$784.2B
+10.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.78 per $1
Model Accuracy
684.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $186B vs the actual $191B — an error of 2.4%.
Note:
Walmart Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $186B | $191B | $144B – $228B | +3.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $199B | $139B – $259B | +20.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $191B | $118B – $264B | +7.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $192B | $107B – $276B | +6.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $202B | $108B – $296B | +6.0% |
🎙️
Latest Earnings Call
Q4 2026
Stephanie Schiller Wissink
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76 sections · 11491 words
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Walmart Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9937 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | -0.0051 | -100.5% | -100.5% below trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.009 | +0.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0058 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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