Walmart Inc. WMT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Walmart Inc. demonstrates a strong revenue-driving mechanism, with a 1% increase in selling, general, and administrative expenses yielding a notable 0.83% boost in revenue, highlighting effective cost management and operational efficiency. The company's latest quarterly revenue of $177.8 billion reflects a solid performance, albeit with a 4.3% error in holdout predictions, indicating room for improvement in forecasting accuracy. With a fiscal year forecast of $715 billion, representing a 2.7% year-over-year growth, Walmart is well-positioned for continued expansion, making it an attractive prospect for financial investors seeking stable returns. The model's 1.7% MAPE suggests a reliable approach to understanding revenue dynamics, reinforcing confidence in the company's strategic spending and growth potential.

Next FY Revenue
$714.98B
+2.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.83x
Model Accuracy
1.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $170B vs the actual $178B — an error of 4.3%.
Note: Walmart Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

WMT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $170B $178B $163B – $177B +1.3% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $179B $169B – $190B +0.3%
Q2 2026 $175B $163B – $188B +6.7%
Q3 2026 $180B $166B – $196B +2.7%
Q4 2026 $180B $164B – $198B +1.3%

How Spending Drives Revenue

WMT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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