Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Howmet Aerospace Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.1B, a -2.1% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($10.68 per $1) and SG&A ($19.51 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $10.68 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $19.51 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.0B | $2.2B | $1.8B – $2.2B | +7.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.0B | $1.7B – $2.2B | +2.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.0B | $1.7B – $2.3B | -2.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.0B | $1.7B – $2.4B | -2.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.1B | $1.7B – $2.5B | -5.0% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0039 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0113 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9915 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0044 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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