Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Howmet Aerospace Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.1B, a -2.1% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($10.68 per $1) and SG&A ($19.51 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $10.68 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $19.51 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$8.08B
-2.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$10.68 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$19.51 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.0B vs the actual $2.2B — an error of 6.6%.

Revenue Forecast

HWM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2.0B $2.2B $1.8B – $2.2B +7.1% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $2.0B $1.7B – $2.2B +2.6%
Q3 2026 $2.0B $1.7B – $2.3B -2.9%
Q4 2026 $2.0B $1.7B – $2.4B -2.4%
Q1 2027 $2.1B $1.7B – $2.5B -5.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0039 +0.4% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0113 +1.1% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9915 -0.8% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0044 +0.4% In line with trend 8

How Spending Drives Revenue

HWM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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